U.S. Inflation Not Getting (Much) Worse, or Better, but Consumers are Fine
Things are not quite as bad as some headlines imply, although also not great. Plus: inside the retail sales and inventory revisions!
Housing remains the weak link in the economy, and CalculatedRisk documented it from nearly every angle this week — weakening apartment market conditions, pending home sales down 7.3% year-over-year, homebuilder confidence below pandemic lows, and starts slipping to a 1.221 million annual rate. For advisors with clients in real estate, REITs, or considering a home purchase or sale, the message is consistent: this isn't a one-off data point but a broad-based slump, and refinancing maturing commercial loans is becoming a genuine stress point worth flagging to clients with exposure there.
Liquidity is tightening and capital is getting scarcer, a theme Capital Wars hit from multiple directions — global liquidity declined for a second straight week, the post-COVID bond rally "madness" looks over, and even Bitcoin's price action may be signaling investors are looking ahead to a 2027 liquidity upturn rather than celebrating today's conditions. The Transcript reinforced this with its "Shortage of Capital" theme, noting record government deficits are crowding against rising private capital demand. For advisors, this argues for caution on duration-sensitive and credit-sensitive positions, and a closer look at how liquidity-sensitive assets in client portfolios might behave if the backdrop keeps turning less supportive.
Income-generation strategies are having a moment, with The Multiplier publishing a full slate of options-income content for retirees — cash-secured puts on Walmart, dividend aristocrats that raised payouts through every crisis since 2008, a weekly options calendar, and real P&L case studies ($5,786 in five days). With The Overshoot confirming consumers are "fine" but inflation isn't clearly improving, these yield-and-premium strategies may resonate with income-focused and retiree clients looking for ballast amid uneven macro signals.
Behavioral and career incentives still shape investment decisions more than pure analysis, as Klement on Investing reminded readers this week — career risk often trumps investment risk for professional allocators, a dynamic worth remembering when evaluating institutional flows or manager behavior. Klement also flagged how higher taxes (ahead of the UK budget) can dent growth, and how the data center boom is accelerating energy-transition buildout — two structural themes advisors should keep on the radar for clients with policy or infrastructure/energy exposure.
Hand-picked Substack publications, pulled by public RSS (free posts only). Insurance- and estate-specific Substacks remain sparse; those verticals stay covered by AdvisorListen's industry and regulatory feeds.